JW Najarian Newsletter

 

06-30-07

 

Developers Struggle to Make Deals Work

Commercial Mortgage Debt Hits New Heights

What is CMBS?

Prepayment Penalties

Useful Links

Commercial Lenders See Hike in Originations

Office Outlook for Los Angeles and Denver

The Danger of Large U.S. Trade Deficits

RCA Podcast Features Top Economist on Market Forecasts

How do you find Commercial Properties?

 

Archives:  Past Newsletters  www.emeraldbayinvest.com/realestate/newsletter_archive.html

 

 

 

 

Developers Struggle to Make Deals Work

 

In Search of Feasible Deals

APARTMENT FINANCE TODAY • JUNE 2007  www.apartmentfinancetoday.com

 

Experts prepare for tighter underwriting, struggle against rising costs, shrinking incomes.

By Andre Shashaty

New volatility in the debt financing markets and the long upward trend in operating and construction costs are among the topics worrying apartment owners and developers, according to industry leaders participating in Apartment Finance Today’s Leadership Roundtable.

The continuing surge in capital chasing real estate equity positions looks like a decidedly mixed blessing, according to members of the magazine’s Editorial Advisory Board and invited guests who participated in the discussion.

Commercial Mortgage Debt Hits New Heights

Staff Report  www.nreionline.com

Jun 14, 2007 3:51 PM

Commercial real estate debt outstanding in the United States grew by 2.5% in the first quarter to exceed $3 trillion for the first time, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s analysis of the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds data.

Commercial debt, which includes multifamily mortgages, increased to $3.001 trillion in the first quarter, a $72.4 billion increase from the fourth quarter of 2006. Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding grew to $741 billion, an increase of $11.8 billion or 1.6% from the second quarter.

“Issuers of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), collateralized debt obligations (CDO) and other asset-backed securities (ABS) were responsible for almost 60% of the increase in commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding,” says Jamie Woodwell, the MBA’s senior director of commercial/multifamily research. “Looking just at the multifamily market, CMBS, CDO and other ABS issuers were responsible for a full 70% of the growth.”

The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data summarizes the holding of loans or, if the loans are securitized, the form of the security.

 

More:  http://nreionline.com/news/Commercial_Mortgage_Debt_New_Heights/

 

 

What is CMBS?

 

Commercial mortgage-backed security

 

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are a type of bond commonly issued in American security markets. They are a type of Mortgage-backed security, but are backed by mortgages on commercial rather than residential real estate. CMBS issues are usually structured into multiple tranches, similar to CMOs rather than typical residential passthroughs etc.

Many CMBS demonstrate less prepayment risk than other types of MBS thanks to the structure of commercial mortgages. Commercial mortgages often contain lockout provisions after which they are often subject to defeasance, yield maintenance and prepayment penalties to protect bondholders.  More:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_mortgage-backed_security.

 

JW Najarian and Paul Salazar

 

CMBS Lenders are often called Wall Street Lenders and the rates are very low.  Closing costs are high.  There are prepayment penalties associated with the CMBS product.   Defeasance is the usual penalty, but a margin increase will allow Yield Maintenance.  A lender that lends CMBS loans is often known as a conduit lender.

 

CMBS – Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities:  Investment Bank that is not a Portfolio Lender

 

  • Lend on all commercial product

o        Minimum loan size is $3M

  • Lowest rates in the Market

o        Underwrite to DCR (Cash flow rules)

  • Treasury Defeasance for standard prepayment or a margin increase will allow Yield Maintenance
  • 5,10 year fixed rates only

o        Lend based on the corresponding treasury and lenders margin

  • Most expensive closing costs in the industry due to the securitization process
  • Non-Recourse lender
  • 30 year amortization
  • 45 day closing

 

 

Prepayment Penalties

 

In the commercial mortgage market the prepayment fees are structured in a fashion whereby the lender receives nearly all of the benefits that are available as a result of declining interest rates. The borrower, however, may still be willing to prepay in order to take advantage of a market opportunity that will, or is perceived to, provide a benefit in excess of the prepayment fee. For example: sell the underlying property, a cash-out refinance, or a simply rollover refinance at a moment when rates are perceived to be at an unusually low point.2 In each of these cases, the prepayment fee becomes one of many transaction cost/benefit factors to consider. For purposes of this article, the benefit of a refinancing is assumed positive and, therefore, the analysis focuses on a comparison between the commonly used prepayment methods.

 

Declining Balance

 

The earliest version of a prepayment fee is the declining balance formula. This formula is structured as a fixed percentage of the outstanding loan amount. For example, 5 percent in loan years one and two, 4 percent in loan years three and four, and so on until 1 percent in loan years nine and 10. As both the percentage reduction and a decreasing outstanding loan amount decline, so does the resulting fee. The concept behind this formula is that as a loan matures, prepayment will have a decreasingly smaller impact on the lender's profit. Declining formulas often included windows of 30-180 days prior to termination, wherein, the borrower could prepay with no penalty.

 

Yield Maintenance

 

Later, the yield maintenance formula was introduced. Yield maintenance is a bit more creative in that the fee is based on interest rate movement. Therefore, a borrower seeking to take advantage of an interest rate decline would pay a higher fee than the borrower who prepays when rates have remained constant or have risen. The standard yield maintenance formula is defined as the present value of the remaining payments multiplied by the difference between the note rate and the treasury securities yield with the same term as the remaining term.3 The effect of this is to provide the lender, (or trustee in the case of a securitization), the ability to reinvest this lump-sum amount in treasury securities that will yield the same return as if the loan were in place to full maturity.

 

Defeasance

 

Later still, defeasance was introduced as an alternative to yield maintenance.4 Defeasance is a process whereby the borrower offers the lender replacement collateral in order to gain a release of the original collateral. In a securitized transaction, this replacement collateral must be treasury securities. Therefore, from a practical standpoint, yield maintenance and defeasance provisions are quite similar. Under the yield maintenance formula, the lender receives a lump-sum payment (based on treasury yields) that it can reinvest at will. In effect, a defeasement obligates the borrower to reinvest, on behalf of the lender, the prepayment proceeds in treasury securities.

 

More:  http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3681/is_200107/ai_n8953948

 

 

 

Useful Links

 

www.rentslicer.com – Nationwide Rental Information

 

most expensive markets
Past 90 Days

 

City

Avg Price

 

 

 

1.

Syracuse

$3,121.98

2.

New York

$2,812.94

3.

Buffalo

$2,674.37

4.

Albany

$2,381.51

5.

Boston

$1,874.34

6.

Los Angeles

$1,838.16

7.

Honolulu

$1,827.62

8.

San Francisco

$1,811.94

9.

Miami

$1,768.62

10.

San Diego

$1,660.64

 

Sample from Rent Slicer

 

 

least expensive markets
Past 90 Days

 

City

Avg Price

 

 

 

1.

Evansville

$546.05

2.

Manchester

$586.70

3.

Bolton

$588.02

4.

York

$595.22

5.

Odessa

$613.17

6.

Springfield-Il

$614.55

7.

Utica

$616.08

8.

Reading

$645.97

9.

Fort Wayne

$649.53

10.

Beaumont

$658.64

 

www.auctionservices.com/

www.1031-nnn-properties.com/

www.cityfeet.com

www.city-data.com

www.jrwinvestments.com/phpgdv40/home.php - 1031/TIC Exchange

www.stdbonline.com

 

 

Commercial Lenders See Hike in Originations

 

June 08, 2007 - June 14, 2007
Provided by Commercial Real Estate Direct in Loopnet News

 

Commercial mortgage origination volumes during Q1 2007 ran 37% ahead of the same period last year, according to a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That increased volume was driven in large part by the acquisition of REITs, including Blackstone Group's $38.7 billion acquisition of Equity Office Properties Trust, which resulted in some $31.2 billion of financings. Of the major lenders, conduits or securitized lenders saw a 61% increase in volume in Q1 '07, while agency lenders such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saw a 22% increase. When compared to Q4 '06, historically the most active quarter of any year, Q1 '07 saw a 15% decline.

 

 


The Danger of Large U.S. Trade Deficits

By Anthony Downs – National Real Estate Investor

Jun 1, 2007 12:00 PM

For the past decade, U.S. real estate markets have been dominated by a flood of financial capital from foreign and domestic sources. Market prices of housing and commercial properties have soared while cap rates compressed.

This flood of capital has largely been generated by a huge long-term global financial trading imbalance among nations, plus the stock market crash of 2000-2002. The United States has been running enormous trade deficits by importing far more than it was exporting. To pay for that imbalance, Americans issue debt to foreign firms and governments, mainly as U.S. Treasury securities.

More:  http://nreionline.com/commentary/money/real_estate_danger_large_us/

 

 

Office Outlook for Los Angeles and Denver

 

Los Angeles Office Rents to Rise
Rents in Los Angeles County office buildings will continue to rise during the next few years as businesses expand and take empty space off the market, according to a UCLA survey of real estate professionals. In 2006, the average rent was 4.7% over 2005 levels and the rate of increase should be even higher in years ahead. The overall vacancy rate in Los Angeles was a little over 10% in Q1 2007, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

 

Office Rents on Rise in Downtown Denver
Office rents are skyrocketing in downtown Denver, with some tenants paying as much as $40/sf. The rental boom is the result of investors paying premium prices for upper-end buildings and an increase in construction costs for newly built buildings. However, the boom could grind to a halt because of the new construction planned for Denver. Currently, there is 3.4 million sf of office space either being planned or already under construction in the metropolitan area.

 

Visit Commercial Real Estate Direct at www.crenews.com for up-to-the-minute commercial real estate news.

 

 

RCA Podcast Features Top Economist on Market Forecasts

 

NAR 6-20-07

 

Listen to John Tuccillo, author and nationally known economist, share his insights on where the economy is heading in the latest RCA Technology & Intelligence Briefing Podcasts. Tuccillo says foreign loans to cover the U.S. deficits, along with the deteriorating value of the dollar, will put upward pressure on interest rates. Subscribe to the RCA Podcasts from iTunes or REALTOR.org or contact rca@realtors.org to order a free audio CD. Read more...
http://www.realtor.org/ncommsrc.nsf/pages/TechnologyAndIntelligenceV7Tuccillo?OpenDocument&WT.mc_t=LS062007&WT.mc_n=Comm

 

 

How do you find Commercial Properties?

 

How do you find commercial properties that follow your investment goals?  First you should know what your investment goals are.  How much can you afford to put into a deal without changing your lifestyle to afford it?  What rate of return or capitalization rate (CAP) do you want on your investment?  Are you willing to manage the property or will you be using management; your own or third party?  What type of property are you looking for?

 

If you’re new to investing in commercial properties it is suggested you look locally or at least some specific place to focus on.  The best decisions in commercial investments come from knowing the area and demographics well.

 

The Internet offers a wide variety of places to search for properties.  Loopnet is quite popular, but many feel that the properties you will see there are the ones that brokers have placed after they have had difficulty finding a buyer.  There is also Costar with is a service used mostly by commercial realtors.  It is expensive, but has some merit.  There is also CIMLS, eBay (yes eBay) and many others.  Auctions can be great places to find properties, but they are mostly broken down by specific area so know who and what you are dealing with.  Go to an auction before you ever buy. 

 

Letter campaigns are a great way to contact commercial owners that may want to sell their properties.  This can be one of the best ways to find off the radar properties.  Get a list of owners for the area and types of buildings you want to focus on from various vendors or your title company.

 

Use a broker.  The National Association of Realtors will have broker listings or check on the net.  Just make sure you check out the broker and make sure you’re a decent fit.  Check out more than one.  When working with a broker, it is best to know what you want.

 

Networking with investment groups and commercial owners and other investors is a great way to find out about properties.  Find a group.

 

Look in the paper, drive around the areas you want to purchase in.

 

There are many ways to find properties.  Talk too many and read up on the industry.  I have found quite a few deals out there and I have many resources to help you.

 

Learn how to analyze a deal to know if it is good or not.  Get together with others that can help you go over a deal.  After you do find that gem out there, make sure you call me to help you with the financing.

 

JW Najarian 6/19/09

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

Forgive me... This newsletter is being sent late due to my absense the last two weeks.

 

I hope you enjoy the information I provide.  If not please give me some suggestions.  I will also love to add your commentary or information to this letter.

 

The Mastermind in Los Angeles is coming together quickly.  Let me know if you have interest in helping or attending.  We are working with Harv Eker team to build one of the best Mastermind organizations we can.  The working title right now is "Building Wealth through Commercial Real Estate"  I will have the website up soon.  This is a first come, first served Mastermind opportunity and membership will be limited.

 

This newsletter is for my investor friends.  It is not part of Pathfinder Mortgage Corp or their associates.  I am a commercial real estate lender and an investor.  I am now in the process of sectioning off my database for my Pathfinder clients and my investor relationships and will soon be sending opt in information for my Pathfinder newsletter and this newsletter.  I apologize for any confusion.

 

If you have projects you are working on and would like my help.  Please contact me to discuss.

 

 

“If at first you don't succeed, you're running about average.”  ~M.H. Alderson

 

 

Kind Regards

 

JW Najarian

www.emeraldbayinvest.com

818-353-9100