Emerald Bay Investments Newsletter

 

Home Resale Activity

Get Comparables for Your Property

Small Southern California Builders are Hot

Housing Slump

Famous Homes

Retail Demand to Continue High?

CAP Rate Research

 

 

Home Resale Activity

 

If you ever read the L.A. Times you may have seen the charts they periodically make that lists the average price per square foot for each city in Los Angeles County.  DQ News publishes this report which has a whole lot of additional, usable information.  This is a quarterly report and DQ News archives the information so you can trend the data.  I love this report for checking average home pricing and changes in pricing per city.  www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm

 

Here is a sample:  In this report alone there over 600 cities listed in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and Santa Barbra counties.

 

 

 

Single Family Homes

Condominiums

SFR Only

Community Name

ZIP Code

Sales of Singe Family Homes

Price Median SFR ($1,000)

Price % Chg from April 2006

Sales Count Condos

Price Median Condos ($1,000)

Price % Chg from April 2006

Median Home Price/ Sq. Ft

LOS ANGELES COUNTY

County

 

4,882

$570

5.6%

1,380

$445

8.6%

$410

Acton

93510

10

$715

7.5%

n/a

n/a

n/a

$274

Agoura Hills

91301

16

$989

20.6%

12

$430

0.4%

$350

Alhambra

91801

9

$590

-1.7%

15

$443

3.0%

$461

Alhambra

91803

13

$550

10.1%

1

$400

0.5%

$428

Altadena

91001

29

$609

-6.2%

n/a

n/a

n/a

$498

Arcadia

91006

19

$807

-1.0%

8

$616

-7.4%

$453

Arcadia

91007

17

$1,200

33.7%

12

$545

9.0%

$422

Artesia

90701

7

$560

8.7%

1

$340

-28.9%

$423

Avalon

90704

1

$675

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

$1,004

Azusa

91702

29

$460

-1.8%

7

$410

11.2%

$380

Baldwin Park

91706

29

$448

4.6%

4

$343

5.4%

$387

Bell

90201

17

$535

33.1%

2

$355

22.8%

$501

Bellflower

90706

34

$525

1.3%

8

$405

-4.7%

$403

Beverly Hills

90210

20

$2,510

50.9%

6

$835

n/a

$749

Beverly Hills

90211

9

$1,350

-3.6%

5

$865

-21.3%

$748

Beverly Hills

90212

5

$1,821

n/a

1

$631

-34.6%

$840

Burbank

91501

10

$686

-19.3%

11

$504

5.2%

$475

Burbank

91502

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

$365

n/a

n/a

Burbank

91504

17

$733

8.5%

11

$480

-3.0%

$499

Burbank

91505

29

$670

5.5%

3

$465

24.0%

$515

 

 

There are also charts for San Diego, Orange County, San Francisco and Sacramento as well as other charts for Las Vegas, Portland, Seattle, Denver, Phoenix, Honolulu, Nashville, Chicago, Jacksonville, and Miami/Palm Beach. 

 

DQ News also has home sales and foreclosure reports for many other counties and cities across the U.S.

 

DataQuick has been around for many years providing diverse data to real estate professionals.

 

 

Get Comparables for Your Property

 

There are a few sites that give comparables data.  I have listed a few here.  I would like to put together a more complete list with pros and cons.  If you can help please contact me.

 

Site

Pros

Con

 

 

RESIDENTIAL

 

www.homesmartreports.com

A lot of data that HomeSmart reports to be better than Zillow

Limited Area Search

www.zillow.com

Large search area

Some data has been reported to be as old as two years.

www.propertyshark.com

Great information, Larger area of search than some other services

Data is not available for all areas

www.realestateabc.com

Allows you to adjust data if assessors office info is incorrect

Limited amount of data

 

 

COMMERCIAL

 

www.loopnet.com

Thousands of Listings, low cost of membership

If you see it on Loopnet so has everyone else.

www.costar.com

This is the choice of the professional

Cost if VERY high.

www.cimls.com

Thousands of Commercial Properties to search

Data is limited.  Income, Expenses and CAP rate usually do not show on listing

 

With commercial property you do not necessarily need comparable data.  Commercial Property value is based on the Net Operating Income (NOI).  With these services you can, however check CAP rates in the area and get general market data that will help you with your investment choices.

 

Small Southern California Builders are Hot

 

Source: The Sacramento Bee
Publication date: May 18, 2007

 

By Jim Wasserman, The Sacramento Bee, Calif.

May 18--Private family-owned builders are growing their share of new-home sales so far in 2007, gaining market share at the expense of some of the nation's biggest publicly traded home builders, according to new statistics.

 

Six longtime local home builders alone accounted for 15.5 percent of the region's 2,671 home sales in January, February and March, according to Costa Mesa-based Hanley Wood Market Intelligence. During all of 2006 those builders -- Elliott Homes, Dunmore Homes, Reynen & Bardis Communities, JMC Homes, Tim Lewis Communities and JTS Communities -- accounted for about 9.5 percent of nearly 10,000 sales.

 

Though the new statistics show only one quarter's sales, analysts say they may represent the advantages -- at least in the current tough market -- of local builders who bought their land years ago. The lower prices paid then enable them to compete more effectively on price.

 

By contrast, many publicly traded builders bought land at the height of the housing boom. They also must meet the short-term earnings expectations of their Wall Street shareholders.  More…… www.builderonline.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=27&articleID=502729

 

Housing Slump

Housing Slump Continued in April

Home building posted a small gain in April, but permits for future construction plunged by the largest amount in 17 years, a sign the nation's housing industry is still in a deep slump.

Complete story

Fed Chief: Home Slump Shouldn't Hurt Economy

Subprime mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures will keep rising into next year, but they aren't expected to seriously harm the broader economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week.

Complete story

 

Famous Homes

 

 

The Brady Bunch House
11222 Dilling St.
North
Hollywood, CA

 

Osbourne's MTV House

513 Doheny Rd.
Beverly Hills, CA

Friends Apartment Building

88 Bedford St.
New York, NY

Beverly Hills 90210 House

1675 E Altadena Dr.
Altadena, CA

 

Retail Demand to Continue High?


Industry Not Worried About April Sales Figures
National Real Estate Investor - Staff Report

One of the single-biggest reasons behind the continued strength of retail real estate has been that despite a series of shocks to the system -- wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the housing bust, exploding gas prices and deadly hurricanes -- Americans have kept shopping. Consumer spending seemed to weather every storm despite warnings from many quarters that demise was imminent.

So when the same-store figures for April came in showing it had been the worst month in the nearly 40 years that same-store sales stats have been tracked, one had to wonder if it was a momentary hiccup or the beginning of the oft-predicted death knell of the American consumer.

At the ICSC Convention, most seem to be voting for the former. The combination of it being the coldest April in a decade, high gas prices and the April shift that pushed more Easter-related sales into March laid the groundwork for one bad month. But everyone seems to have put that behind them now.  Read full story here.

 

 

Loopnet News

 

Retail Property Investing Strengthens
Retail real estate investing is off to a frothy start in 2007 amid weakening property fundamentals. $32.2 billion of retail property transactions have closed so far this year, compared to $52.5 billion in 2006, according to Real Capital Analytics. The $17.1 billion that closed in Q1 2007 almost doubled in volume from Q1 2006. Amid the investment surge, observers of property fundamentals note that retail rental and vacancy rates are worsening. They warn this could be a protracted trend driven by excessive construction and weakening consumer spending.

 

Office Construction Returns to Silicon Valley
Office construction activity has returned to California's Silicon Valley after a hiatus that has lasted several years. A combined 18.33 million sf of office and R&D construction is under way in Palo Alto, Menlo Park and Sunnyvale which includes more than 1.4 million sf being built speculatively.

 

Property Markets Strong as Economy Slows
Coupled with uncertainty in the housing market and slowing consumer spending, this may result in a sharper economic slowdown which will impact the commercial property market. Growth in the country's gross domestic product, was an annualized 1.3% in Q1 2007, down sharply from the annualized growth rate of 5.6% in the same period a year ago. In addition, only 88,000 net new jobs were created this month, off from the 143,000 average for the three previous months. Home sales remain strong, thanks to still-low mortgage rates. Uncertainty resulting from problems in the subprime lending world could impact sales and prices.

 

Visit Commercial Real Estate Direct at www.crenews.com for up-to-the-minute commercial real estate news.

 

 

CAP Rate Research

 

FREE

 

Urban Land Institute

Real Estate Capital Markets Update

Commercial cap rates presented in report

 

CBRE

CB Richard Ellis: Insight Reports

  

Colliers

Colliers International: Market Reports, Real Estate Review; Global Office Real Estate Review; Parking Rate survey; Office, Retail and Industrial Highlights.

 

Colliers chart 2005

Colliers chart 2006

Cap Rates in Report. Good Chart!

Historical Cap Rates by Property Type, 2001 to 2004

(See page 19 of this national report)

  

NCREIF

National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries

>NCREIF News > NCREIF Property Index Flash Report

Quarterly: Income + Appreciation = Total Return, non-leveraged portfolios of Apartment, Industrial, Office and Retail. All properties acquired on behalf of tax-exempt institutions and held in a fiduciary environment. Commercial real estate data based on "strict valuation standards."

 

Marcus & Millichap, Vitorino Group

Real Estate Investor Outlook, Retail Research Report, and more.

Includes cap rate discussion & investor surveys.

  

REGISTER

 

Marcus & Millichap

 

  

PAY

 

Appraisal Institute - Member Appraisers

Commercial Appraisers know local cap rates! Call one today! For around $200 to $400 they would likely provide you great data! And talk about each sale and how the cap rate was calculated!

 

Torto Wheaton & CBRE

Torto Wheaton Research Outlook reports on office, retail, industrial, and more. See sample report in middle of page.

 

Torto Wheaton

Market Coverage

$295 for market reports available for 48 markets.

 

Real Capital Analytics

Market Trends & Trades. Cap rates & prices by property type. Regional & national comparisons. Largest recent deals. Leading buyers, sellers & brokers. There are currently 204 different Trends & Trades reports available, all based on data current through the most recently completed quarter. Also, free Regional and City sale and price statistics. See links on main page.

 

RERC Real Estate Reports

Quarterly magazine: $125 each, $275 annual subscription. Comprehensive real estate investment report. Independent survey research and analysis provided for CBD and suburban offices, industrial R&D and warehouse properties, apartments, hotels, regional malls, power centers, and neighborhood/community centers. Electronic or hard copy. 

 

RERC Real Estate Flash Report

$50 quarterly or $100 annual subscription, incl Flash Report. Compilation of surveyed national investment criteria (leasing assumptions, yields and cap rates by property type, marketing time, and more.) Released directly end of quarter for fast, general information. 

 

RERC

Investment Criteria Report Historical cap rates on 9 property types. $125

RERC

Real Estate Research Corporation Many different reports

 

Realty Rates

Market Coverage

Investor Survey  $89 per year. Cap and discount rates, loan terms and interest rates, equity requirements, reserve requirements, and interim financing rates and terms for 32 types, plus financial indicators, historical cap rate trend data, and land lease cap and discount rates, by property type.

 

Market Survey  $89 per year. Sale, rent, occupancy, and expense data, and cap rates. Covers 12 regions and 45 metro markets.

 

CoStar

Costly, or pay just $39 for 1 day of usage. Market and Building specific data of sale prices, cap rates, vacancy and rents in 48 markets. For cap rate data look at “CoStar Comps”.

 

Staubach

> Market Analysis.  See list in middle of page.

 

PriceWaterhouseCoopers

Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2006 "Recognized as the real estate industry's most respected annual forecast, is now in its 27th year. This publication is published jointly by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and ULI - the Urban Land Institute.

 

Korpacz

Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey® "Widely recognized as an authoritative source for capitalization and discount rates, cash flow assumptions, and actual criteria of active investors, as well as property market information. Quarterly

 

I hope you enjoy the information I provide.  If not please give me some suggestions.  I will also love to add your commentary or information to this letter.

 

I am contemplating putting together a Master Mind that would meet in Los Angeles and possibly Orange County.  Let me know if you have interest in helping or attending.  I am working with a team of about 5 now, but would like more input.

 

If you have projects you are working on and would like my help.  Please contact me to discuss.

 

“The directions are on the outside of the box!”  Keith Cunningham (I think?)

 

Kind Regards

 

JW Najarian

818-353-9100

 

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